Elevator industry: It is the right time for transformation breakthrough in the era of steady growth

At present, China is the world's largest elevator producer and consumer. China's elevator production and consumption in the world accounted for more than 60%, the annual elevator production is expected to be close to 800,000 units in 2015, according to the average price of 200,000 yuan per unit, is already a hundred billion level market. But the total quantity of elevator in our country per capita still lags behind that of developed countries and regions, and in the long term, there is still much room for improvement.

Stock base and downstream boom, promote the industry into a stable growth stage. The growth rate of production and sales of new elevators in China slows down, on the one hand, because the domestic elevator industry has experienced an average annual growth rate of 20% in the past 10 years, and the elevator output has increased nearly 6 times. It is expected that the elevator ownership will exceed 4.3 million units by the end of 2015. With the expansion of the stock base, the industry has entered a stable growth stage from the original explosive growth stage. On the other hand, as the main downstream of the elevator industry, the real estate industry boom degree is strongly correlated with the elevator demand. With the slowdown of the real estate market, the growth rate of the cumulative construction area of housing is declining, and the industry demand is slowing down.

Rail transit, affordable housing, old ladder transformation and other new demand to hedge part of the downward pressure. In the elevator downstream demand, commercial residential elevators account for more than half of the total demand, and about 30-40% of the demand is not related to the real estate industry. In contrast to the slowdown of new demand for real estate, elevator sales show a high growth trend in several fields such as rail transit, affordable housing and the renovation and renewal of old elevators. The new demand forms a certain hedge against the decline of traditional demand, and the growth rate of production and sales of new elevators can still be maintained at 5-10% in the next 3-5 years.

After the installation and maintenance of the market is expected to usher in an outbreak. In 2015, 4.3 million elevators in China will generate at least 20 billion yuan of maintenance income. With the elevators running for more than 15 years, they gradually enter the stage of high-dimensional premium use, and the scale of this after-market is still climbing. At the same time, the shape of the elevator maintenance market is also changing, for safety and regulations, more and more elevator owners tend to choose the elevator factory for professional maintenance. We expect that in the next five years, the industry maintenance business will account for more than 30% of the revenue.

The two attributes of the industry lay the future direction of transformation. First of all, the overall profitability of the elevator industry is stable and abundant funds for the characteristics of the extended development of enterprises to provide financial conditions. In the future, the real estate boom will fall and the sales growth of new elevators will slow down, which will provide opportunities for enterprise transformation. Therefore, elevator enterprises have the transformation power to find new growth points. At the same time, intelligent manufacturing genes of elevator enterprises also provide industrial basis and breakthrough direction for business transformation. Most of the domestic elevator production processes are automated, the robot application prospect has an intuitive understanding. We believe that it is the development trend of the elevator industry in the future to integrate robots, the Internet of things and the manufacturing capability of elevator enterprises and enter the field of intelligent manufacturing

Risk hints: the downstream economic downturn leads to lower elevator demand than expected; The growth of the maintenance market is slow; There is uncertainty about the pace at which companies are shifting to things like robotics.