China Elevator Association Information Network (Looking back at the past, we look forward to the future!)

On November 26-27, 2015, the 2015 annual meeting of China Elevator Association Information Network was held in Chongqing Wudu Hotel. Li Shoulin, Chairman of China Elevator Association, Zhang Lexiang, Deputy Secretary General of China Elevator Association, Ma Peizhong, Deputy Director of National Elevator Quality Supervision and Inspection Center, Professor Zhu Changming, Director of Elevator Sub-Committee of Special Equipment Safety Technology Committee of AQSIQ, Power Electronics and Electric Transmission of Tianjin University Professor Wan Jianru, director of the research institute, Zhu Sizhong, consultant of the National Elevator Standardization Technical Committee, Cai Jinquan, deputy director of the National Elevator Standardization Committee, Wang Rui, director of China Elevator Magazine, and Shanghai Mitsubishi Elevator Co., Ltd. from the director unit and deputy director unit of the Information Network Ruan Weimin, Chief Engineer, Ou Zhe, R&D Management Center of Hitachi Elevator (China) Co., Ltd., Wang Jianli, Chairman of Shenyang Sanyo Heavy Industry Group Co., Ltd., Qi Haojun, Deputy General Manager of Shanghai Housing Equipment Co., Ltd., Hu Panhu, Consultant of Shanghai Housing Equipment Co., Ltd., etc. attended this meeting.

First of all, welcome all guests and more than 200 representatives to take time out of their busy schedules to attend this annual meeting. This annual meeting is the 30th annual meeting. I would like to thank the China Elevator Association for its care and help to the information network in the past 30 years. I also thank all the representatives present, including the representative units, for their active participation in the information network in the past 30 years. support.

According to my review of China Elevator Magazine, the first annual meeting—from March 28 to 30, 1986, the National Elevator Information Network East China Network (East China Elevator Information Network) held the first experience exchange meeting in Wuxi City. At that time, the organizer of the meeting was Wuxi Jinxing Elevator Factory, and 68 representatives from 41 units attended the meeting. Throughout the past 30 years, our elevator counterparts have used our own information exchange platform to communicate on the development of the elevator industry at home and abroad, the advancement of elevator technology, and industry standards. In the early days of reform and opening up, everyone did not know much about the development of elevator technology and elevator industry abroad. There is a big gap between domestic elevator technology and industry and foreign countries. At that time, every information network annual meeting was held by people who had participated in study or training from abroad to explain the development of foreign elevator industry and elevator technology to us. Therefore, the initial annual meeting was mainly used to exchange the relevant development status of foreign elevators. Up to now, with the growth of my country's national economy and the continuous progress and improvement of the elevator industry, our current Chinese elevator technology also has the strength to represent the world's elevator technology.

At the same time, the 30-year history of the information network has also witnessed the development of China's elevator industry. From 1986, the demand for elevators in China just exceeded 10,000 units, and now the demand in the Chinese market has reached more than 600,000 units, which is the demand of the Chinese elevator market. The volume has increased by more than 60 times. It can be said that the information network has witnessed the development of every elevator industry in China.

Colleagues in the elevator industry, good morning. It is a great pleasure to participate in our 2015 annual meeting today. Through the review just now, we learned that the Information Network has been conscientious and self-restrained in the past 30 years, and has made important contributions to the development of our industry. Therefore, on behalf of the China Elevator Association, I would like to express my heartfelt congratulations on the 30th anniversary of the Information Network! Thank you for your outstanding contribution!

Now the prospect of the development of the elevator industry is a topic that every practitioner, especially our entrepreneurs, should pay close attention to. I will share with you some of the situations and feelings I have learned below.

First of all, let me make a brief review on the development of 2013-2015. Everyone believes that these three years are milestone years in the history of China's elevator development. From 10,000 elevators in demand in 1986 to more than 600,000 elevators nationwide, the growth of this data level has made us realize that the development of the elevator industry has undergone earth-shaking changes. However, while this trend makes us excited and happy, everyone will have a vague sense of when this development can reach an inflection point. The most likely turning point for us was in 2008, when the international financial crisis also affected China. At that time, our total output was about 460,000 units per year. Immediately afterwards, we ushered in a very high development situation. Although the base is large, the development speed is also above 2 digits. Suddenly we have reached an unprecedented scale in just 3 years. It can also be said that at that node Last time we lost a period of optimal development of the industrial structure, if not for this, our current overcapacity phenomenon would be much weaker.

In 2013, the number of elevators in my country exceeded 3 million units, reaching the global per capita level for the first time. This is a remarkable achievement, which is both exciting and thought-provoking. The excitement lies in being the first production and The big demand country has finally reached the global average in terms of per capita holdings, which is the pride of the industry. At the same time, it also makes us think deeply about the realization of this goal, indicating that the incremental market demand will further decline, that is, our industry has entered a stage of rapid growth of more than 20% that has lasted for more than 20 years this year. % The medium-speed stage of speed development. In 2013 our growth rate was around 14%.

In 2014, driven by the two factors of land stock development within a time limit and the urgent need to complete the cumulative total of residential buildings under construction, our elevator market continued to maintain a rapid growth of 11.3%, with a total output of 714,000 units and an export of nearly 70,000 units. , exceeded our expectations and reached an all-time high. According to the market monitoring of the association in the first half of 2015, we have to admit that our total output of 71.4 in 2014 has reached its peak.

The peak of China's elevator industry in 2014 made the number of elevators in China reach 3.65 million units this year. It can be safely said that by the end of this year, it will exceed 4 million units. At the same time, the total output of elevators in China this year accounted for 65%-70% of the total global elevator output. Our total production capacity has exceeded 1.4 million units, which is 1.3 times the total global demand. In addition, there is 30% of production capacity. It can be said that overcapacity has become an indisputable fact, which is a heavy burden on the industry and enterprises.

2015 is the turning point of the output of our elevator industry. According to the statistics of the first half of the year, our total order volume showed a significant downward trend compared with the same period in 2014. Recently, through the verification of the data of the first half of the year, this situation has not changed. Therefore, 2015 is the second negative growth year in the history of our elevator development. Compared with a short-term negative growth in 1990, this negative growth lasted for a long time, and this year's negative growth is likely to continue into next year.

The following data show that our production, sales, and order volume will still be a negative growth forecast next year.

First of all, let's take a look at our adjacent industries. The most direct ones are architectural design and construction machinery. The business statistics report in the first half of the year shows that the number of new contracts for architectural design dropped by 47.6%. Statistics made by the Design Institute. The sales volume of the construction machinery industry has dropped by 51%, indicating that the situation next year, including the increase in elevator demand in recent years, will not increase, indicating that the era and stage of China's elevator industry with market growth as the driving force has come to an end. The era of reconfiguration with rigid market demands has come. There have been major changes in the way of competition among manufacturing enterprises and the mode of enterprise development. Each of these three years represents a different period in our development process and has changed a lot.

Second, we must recognize the situation clearly and take the initiative to act. In my spare time, I read a newspaper issued on November 19, which reported such a news that General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed to digest the real estate inventory in the 11th working meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group, so as to promote the sustainable development of real estate. This is the first time General Secretary Xi mentioned real estate. Simply put, there are three spirits. The first is to stabilize the market, and the real estate market must be stable; the second is to destock. How much inventory do we have? Up to now, according to the current sales speed and sales ratio of houses for sale in the country, it is expected that these houses will be sold out in 44 months; the third is to adjust the structure and promote development. The central government immediately held a special seminar on real estate development. The meeting clearly proposed to promote the reform of household registration and promote real estate from the perspective of population. This is to adjust the structure and promote development, which is directly related to the spirit of our elevator industry.

How do we look at this? The situation in 2015 is a matter of coming sooner or later. Sooner or later, one day will come. If you don’t come this year, you will definitely come next year. If you don’t come next year, the next year will come. So it is better to arrive early than to be late, it is better to know early than to arrive early, and it is better to prepare early than to know earlier, history does not allow regrets, but we must review and summarize, if this day happened in 2008, our industry would not be as serious as it is today Overcapacity and serious unreasonable industrial product structure, we should learn from experience.

For the elevator industry, this is the first time we have interpreted it. From the beginning of the 1980s to the present, our industry has been growing at a high speed. We dare not say that it is the only one in the entire manufacturing industry, but it is also very rare. It has maintained rapid development for more than 30 years, which is very rare. We happen to have such a good performance in this segment.

However, this kind of success may make us a little intoxicated, so we have not considered how to adjust the industrial structure in many aspects. Now we have found that our industrial structure is not reasonable and has problems. That is our industrial structure. The manufacturing sector has too much surplus and the service sector owes too much. The elevator product is precisely an industry that pays equal attention to both manufacturing and service industries. In countries where elevator products have developed relatively early, it has become more and more clear that the service industry and manufacturing industry are reversed compared with ours, and the service industry accounts for to 60%-70%, while the manufacturing industry is 30%-40%, so it is extremely urgent to adjust our industrial structure.

The construction industry closest to us has experienced such winters 3 times, the first time in 1988, which lasted for 4 years; the second time in 1999, which lasted for 3 years; the third time occurred in 2011, until It is still declining, for 4 years in a row, each time it is more serious, and the loss is bigger and bigger each time.

We concluded at the meeting of the Construction Machinery Association in the first half of this year that the entire sales volume fell by half compared with the peak year in 2010, leaving only 50%. Enterprises are closed, suspended, and merged, and the total number of employees will be laid off by 50%. Therefore, everyone concluded that the construction machinery industry enterprises have been divided into three types, one is the self-improvement type, the foundation is better, the foundation is thicker, and the accumulation is more, such enterprises are still maintaining normal operation. The second is the moribund type, over-expansion, serious sales mistakes, over-competitive capital chain broken enterprises barely maintained. The third is the silent type, which is to dissolve and go home. This is very obvious.

Compared with other machinery manufacturing industries, our elevator industry also has very prominent features.

1. The most important thing is that our aftermarket is expanding year by year. With the increase of our holdings, usage, and age of the ladder, the value of our maintenance industry is getting higher and higher, and there are more and more tasks. Therefore, from the perspective of the overall development of the industry, although the manufacturing industry has experienced negative growth, the proportion of service industry growth is relatively fast, and the overall growth rate is still maintained. Therefore, the elevator industry is still an industry with a rising total output value, and the development prospects are still broad. However, there have been major changes in the development situation. The first is that the industrial structure has entered a period of adjustment, and the manufacturing industry has gradually been adjusted to the service industry. The development history of developed countries in the world has proved that this is the case. I once had an exchange with the president of the Japanese Elevator Association in Guangzhou, and I learned that the total number of new elevators in Japan this year is less than 25,000 units. Most of its income comes from maintenance and renovation. The proportion of service output value is 72%-75%.

Due to the short development history of our elevator industry, the high-speed development is only 30 years, so the elevator age is generally short. At present, it belongs to the stage where the manufacturing industry is larger than the service industry. Reasons such as excessive use intensity and insufficient service resources will prompt the industry to transform into a service industry, and the corresponding improvement of safety-related policies and technical standards will also promote this process. Therefore, it is very beneficial for our industry to adjust the industrial structure in such a period.

2. Our product structure has entered a period of adjustment. With the improvement of product standards, the invention and application of new technologies, and the increase of market personalized requirements, the product structure is becoming safer, more reliable, more convenient for installation and maintenance, more energy-saving and intelligent. direction of development. Everyone may also realize that our current elevator varieties are in line with international standards, and the varieties are complete, including some special elevators, especially the introduction of our intelligent manufacturing concepts, more personalized elevators, there will be more demand. Therefore, this also poses a serious challenge to the core competitiveness of enterprises. Enterprises that rely only on imitation without creativity will be eliminated from the game, and innovation-driven development will enter the main body from the conceptual level, that is to say, the era of our reshuffle arrive. Looking back on the modern development history of China's elevators for more than 30 years, every adjustment of product structure is accompanied by major technical standards, and the improvement of technical standards has comprehensively promoted the technological progress of the industry. For example, we are in the field of control, from relay, PLC control, AC two-speed, asynchronous stepless speed regulation, permanent magnet stepless speed regulation to servo control. In terms of parts, non-metallic materials such as carbon that have been used in practical applications from steel wire ropes to now. In terms of the function and application field of the whole elevator, it has developed from ordinary residential areas to individual home elevators. In special fields, there are marine ladders, explosion-proof ladders, bridge tower inclined ladders, spiral escalators, one well and two ladders, etc. Innovation is the driving force behind our industry.

3. Talking about China's Industry 2025 in our industry, we have to talk about Germany's Industry 4.0 first. The advent and popularity of digital cameras over a decade ago eliminated film and film manufacturing. The Finns say that the appearance of the I Phone destroyed Nokia, and the appearance of the IPAD will also destroy our paper industry. An incident occurred in 2010. Tesla, which had never heard of it in the auto industry, made a pure electric car. The biggest feature of this car is that it has no engine, no gearbox, and no differential. There was a big shock. The reason why German industry is strong in the world is mainly in the machinery manufacturing industry. The most iconic part of the machinery manufacturing industry is the gear, which is the core competitiveness. The emergence of electric vehicles has prompted Germany to formulate The emergence of such technologies will make Germany's traditional machinery manufacturing and machine tool industries face a major blow. Therefore, they have formulated Industry 4.0, the core of which is intelligent manufacturing, to fundamentally change the development route and pattern of the manufacturing industry. Our China refers to Germany's Industry 4.0, aiming at China's manufacturing industry is large but not strong, and its efficiency and benefits are not high. We have formulated such a plan based on the national conditions and reality, and strive to achieve manufacturing results through three steps, which is our Made in China 2025.

In the elevator industry, Made in China 2025 is of great significance and rich connotations, enabling product personalization and diversification. What we are currently using is the automated production of standard products. It is difficult to meet the future needs of individualization, small batches, and multiple varieties. Therefore, our industry has a long way to go in this regard, and there is a lot of work to be done.

Fourth, the development space of our elevator industry in China is still broad, and we still have full confidence. There are good reasons for saying this. First, the characteristics of elevator products determine that we have an increasing market year by year. By the end of 2015, the number of elevators in China will exceed 4 million units, and the output value of maintenance and renovation will increase year by year. The second is the cumulative increase of elevators over 15 years old, and the number of updates will increase significantly. Now we have exceeded 100,000 units. Third, the elimination of policies and the improvement of standards will create new increments. Fourth, the increase of public buildings and the rigid demand of population urbanization will still create new increments. Under such conditions, our existing more than 500 manufacturing companies and more than 8,000 maintenance companies will be re-allocated according to market resource allocation in the process of this round of product adjustment and industrial structure adjustment. The process is painful, and we want it to be as short as possible. In the end, a new balance is reached under the new situation. The industry can enter the track of healthy and sustainable development. The best ones are left behind, and the ones left behind will occupy more market resources and develop faster and better.